Investment Policy Committee Update - September 2025

Our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) remains focused on balancing opportunity with discipline as markets continue to react to shifting economic and geopolitical dynamics. Following a volatile start to the year, recent developments have created a more constructive environment for risk assets, though caution remains warranted.

2025 has been anything but ordinary. 

Market swings have been driven by a complex mix of macroeconomic uncertainty, trade policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions. The labor market has softened noticeably, with more people now unemployed than there are job openings – the first time since 2021. These developments have prompted a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, culminating in a 25-basis point rate cut on September 17th. The Fed’s pivot toward easing has created a more supportive backdrop for risk assets, and our IPC has leaned into this tailwind—though cautiously.

Equities remain a focal point. 

We’ve increased our equity overweight by 1%, reflecting confidence in the relative earnings strength of U.S. companies. U.S. equities have not only rebounded in price but have delivered robust earnings growth, with over 80% of companies beating expectations in Q2. In contrast, international developed and emerging markets have seen more muted earnings, with performance driven largely by valuation expansion. Our allocation continues to favor growth over value domestically, and value overgrowth abroad, reflecting sector composition and regional dynamics.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains a cornerstone theme.

We’ve deepened our exposure to AI builders and enablers—the “picks and shovels” of the next industrial revolution. With hyperscalers committing over $300 billion annually to infrastructure and adoption rates soaring across industries, AI is both a growth catalyst and a defensive hedge. We view underexposure to AI as a structural risk and are positioning portfolios to capture this multi-decade trend.

Defense and resilience themes have also gained prominence.

Rising fiscal commitments to national security—across shipbuilding, cybersecurity, and infrastructure—are reshaping global investment priorities. We’ve introduced exposure to “national resilience” beneficiaries, recognizing their potential to act as geopolitical hedges alongside traditional diversifiers like gold.

Fixed income and hedging positioning remains tactical. 

In fixed income, we’re maintaining a neutral “duration,” which refers to how sensitive bonds are to changes in interest rates. We’re also adding convertible bonds, which offers flexibility by allowing participation should markets rise while providing protection should markets pull back.

In addition, our initial arguments for gold continue to play out so we have, once again, increased our allocation to precious metals. These holdings continue to serve as a hedge against policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

Investor sentiment has improved, but caution remains warranted.

While recession fears have eased and markets have responded positively to the Fed’s shift, the full economic impact of tariffs and trade disruptions is still unfolding. We expect continued volatility, driven by alternating phases of escalation and de-escalation in policy and geopolitical developments, and we plan to proactively adjust our allocation as opportunities present themselves.

In summary, we remain cautiously optimistic.

The Fed’s easing stance supports risk-taking, but we’re pressing forward with seatbelts on. We are maintaining diversification, focusing on high-conviction ideas, and tactically balancing offense with defensive ballasts. We believe our investments allocations are positioned to navigate uncertainty while capturing opportunities across sectors, styles, and themes.

We will continue to provide ongoing updates on our views and investment positioning through regular IPC posts like this one, and as we meet with you. If you have updates to your financial situation that would change when you need to access your investments, please let us know right away. In addition, if you have questions about our strategy, please let us know and we can review the details at our next meeting. While we don’t recommend fixating on short-term market fluctuations, if you would like to check specific investment performance across all your accounts, our online Orion Portal is available 24/7.

Thank you for your continued trust and allowing us to coordinate your asset management as part of our Family CFO services!