Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee Update – July 2020

As the second half of the year advances, predictions about the trajectory of the economy continue to be released. “You’ll see a big V in terms of the economy going up for the next few months because it’s been closed,” says Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman , though it may “take quite a while before we sync up and get back to 2019 levels.” Bill Ackman , Pershing Square hedge fund manager said he believes the recovery will begin by year-end and sees a normalization of the economy in the second half of 2021. Last week, Jaime Dimon of JPMorgan Chase commented, “Despite some recent positive macroeconomic data and significant, decisive government action, we still face much uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy.”

Everyone has an opinion, however many of the opinions conflict with one another. A good part of the reason for the inconsistency in predictions has to do with the fact we are in uncharted waters. When this happens, we go back to basics for some logic: Over time, the stock market will go up or down based on earnings of companies within the various indices that make up the market. Therefore, investors in the stock market tend to think about what earnings trends will be in the next year or so, not what we are living through today.

Not in decades, maybe not ever, have we seen a health crisis of this nature, nor have we ever seen a single event create a planetary government-mandated shutdown. We are starting to learn the short-term implications of COVID (death rates, etc.), but we have much to learn about the longer term (chicken pox now, and years later shingles). We have also never seen such ‘creative’ worldwide government stimulus be rolled out at the level we are experiencing today. We hear the question all the time: With all the unknowns, both COVID and “rule of un-intended consequence” economic related, how do we position assets for more consistent rates of return? We set a “Base Case” and prepare to adapt.

Defining the Base Case

If you have followed our communications for any length of time you know we keep a close eye on the economy when determining our base case; and thus defining asset allocation and ultimately specific investments. Again, back to basics: The economies of the world are made up of “business cycles.” These cycles are part of our world and reflect our very human boom / bust tendencies.  About ¾ of the time our economy is growing, meaning about ¼ of the time it is shrinking (in recession). JP Morgan provides a good visual of these cycles with the grey lines showing time in recession:

Where are we today?

Our theme for 2020 has been to “participate but defend.” We set this theme by having a base case and adapting as new information has been presented. With dramatic market moves this year, we have been much more active than normal; and so far, this proactive strategy has served us well.

In 2019 our base case was set with the idea we were in the later stages of the economic cycle (markets were up because of the anticipation of higher future corporate earnings, not because of actual earnings). Higher stock prices without the earnings behind the valuation implies more risk. Because of our base case of increased risk in the markets, prior to 2020, we greatly decreased investment risk in our allocation and specific investments. (We shifted to more defensive stocks, sold oil, sold real estate, sold junk bonds, etc).

We held tactical cash from December 2019 until March of 2020; the period where the markets went down to adjust for the fact COVID would cause a collapse in earnings. When the markets set a technical bottom in late March we invested some of the cash. “When you get lemons, make lemonade.” With stocks down, in April, for taxable investment accounts, we implemented a series of tax-loss harvest transactions to reduce tax bills for 2020 and beyond. In early June, as the markets staged a big rebound from the March lows, we executed a full rebalance, once again reducing overall stock exposure and bringing investments back in line with our base case and target allocations. And with the Fed continuing to reiterate ‘ lower interest rates for longer’ our latest adjustment in the second week of July, reduced our overweight to short maturity bonds (1.9 year duration), and added those sale proceeds to longer maturity bonds (5.4 year duration).

What’s next?

In mid-June, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the group tasked with defining when we are in recession, said the US recession officially began in February 2020. (the fastest decision in the 40-year history of declarations.)

We continue to review the logic behind our base case and move forward. As we commented in May , our base case is for a “U” bottom and we continue our positioning around this today. This means we expect waves of optimism and pessimism in the markets tied to opening and closing of the economy until we have a COVID therapeutic and/or vaccine the general population believes is effective. As such, we believe it will likely take a couple of years before we see of a consistent recovery in corporate earnings. This runs contrary to the “V” bottom the stock market is presenting so we are more ‘defensive’, yet still invested so we can ‘participate.’

It’s important to note there are other significant trends we have woven into our base case. We believe 0% rates from the Fed and trillions of dollars of stimulus from Congress and the Treasury should help to keep a floor under the markets. We believe there will be another round of stimulus. We know much of the world is ahead of the USA in slowing the rate of COVID and therefore likely ahead of the US in the economic cycle. We also know that not all sectors of the economy are being impacted the same: Big tech is powering ahead and smaller companies are continuing to struggle. As these trends continue to unfold, you will see us adjust allocations and specific investments to reflect the coming realities.

With the focus of the Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee being to produce a more consistent rate of return over full economic cycles, we remain invested but defensively positioned. With a more consistent rate of return, we have a much higher probability of projecting future values, thus cash flows from investments for a smoother financial ride through life.

If you have specific questions about our strategy, please let us know and we will review details at our next meeting. And while we don’t recommend fixating on short term market fluctuations, if you would like to check specific performance of your investments across all your accounts, our Buttonwood Portal is available 24/7. Or you can contact us and we can provide reports specific to your questions and financial life.

Thank you for your trust and allowing us to serve as your Family CFO. Stay safe and enjoy the summer sun with friends and family!

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February 21, 2026
Tax season has a way of arriving faster than expected. And for 2026, there’s more worth paying attention to than usual—the IRS has updated key figures for tax year 2025, and enforcement around complex returns has intensified. But before you hand everything off to your CPA, a brief pause to review the right details can make the process smoother—and occasionally surfaces something worth acting on. The questions below are starting points for reflection and conversation, not tax guidance. 1. Did anything significant change last year? Life moves fast, and the tax code tries to keep up. A new job, a growing family, a home purchase, a business change, or even a large one-time expense can shift your tax situation in ways that deserve attention. This is also worth thinking about through the lens of your broader advisor team—changes that affect your investments, estate plan, or business interests often have tax consequences that only surface when everyone is looking at the full picture together. If it felt significant, it’s probably worth mentioning. 2. Have you collected all your income documents? Before anything else, make sure the full picture is on the table. W-2s, 1099s, K-1s, Social Security statements, and brokerage summaries should all be accounted for—and reviewed for accuracy, not just collected. A number that looks wrong is worth questioning before your return is filed. One timing note worth flagging: if you hold interests in partnerships, LLCs, private equity funds, or real estate partnerships, K-1s often don’t arrive until mid-March. If your CPA isn’t expecting them, there’s a real risk of filing prematurely without crucial income information 3. Is your paperwork actually ready to hand off? There’s a difference between having your documents and having them organized. A simple folder—digital or physical—sorted by category saves time, reduces back-and-forth with your CPA, and lowers the chance something gets missed in the shuffle. Five minutes of organizing now can prevent a week of delays later. This matters especially if you work with multiple advisors: your wealth manager, CPA, estate attorney, and business attorney each hold pieces of the puzzle. Information that stays siloed between professionals is one of the most common sources of unnecessary complications at filing time. 4. Are your charitable contributions documented? Good intentions don’t substitute for good records. Whether you gave cash, wrote checks, or donated property, make sure you have acknowledgment letters, receipts, or bank records to back it up. For larger contributions, the bar is higher: cash gifts over $250 require written acknowledgment from the charity, non-cash contributions over $500 require Form 8283, and those over $5,000 typically require a qualified appraisal. If you donated appreciated stock or gave through a donor-advised fund, your CPA will also need cost basis information and confirmation of fair market value on the donation date—details that may require coordination with your investment advisor. Timing matters too—gifts need to have been completed by December 31 to count for the prior tax year. 5. Do you have a clear picture of your investment activity? It’s easy to forget about trades made months ago, but we haven't. Sales, exchanges, dividend reinvestments, and distributions can all carry tax consequences. It’s also worth confirming whether any tax-loss harvesting was done on your behalf during the year—those transactions affect your overall gain and loss picture and your CPA should understand them in context. Similarly, if you exercised stock options, received vested restricted stock, or completed a Roth conversion, those activities need to be clearly communicated. Reviewing your year-end statements before you meet with your CPA helps ensure nothing catches anyone off guard. 6. Did your retirement contributions land where you intended? Confirm that what you planned to contribute actually went in—and in the right accounts. If you came up short on IRA contributions, you may still have time to make it right before the filing deadline. If you own a business or have self-employment income, it’s also worth verifying that any retirement plan contributions made through your business are properly coordinated with your personal return. It’s also worth asking whether your current savings rate still fits your retirement timeline. 7. Are your benefit and healthcare accounts squared away? HSAs, FSAs, and similar accounts have their own rules and reporting requirements that are easy to overlook. An HSA withdrawal used for a non-qualified expense, for instance, can trigger a penalty. Pull together your account statements and any related documents so your CPA has the full picture. If you own a business, it’s also worth confirming that health insurance premiums paid through your company are being handled correctly on both your business and personal returns—this is an area where coordination between your bookkeeper and CPA matters more than people expect. 8. What do you want to be more intentional about this year? Tax season is one of the few times most people take a genuine look at their finances. Use that momentum. Beyond filing, consider asking your CPA what your estimated tax payments should look like for 2026, whether any positions on this return carry higher audit risk, and what planning opportunities exist based on what they’re seeing in your return. The IRS has meaningfully intensified enforcement around high-income filers in recent years—particularly around partnership interests, digital asset transactions, and international holdings—so this isn’t a moment to treat compliance as a formality. Whether it’s adjusting your withholding, revisiting your giving strategy, or thinking through a major financial decision ahead, the earlier a conversation starts, the more options you typically have. A Note on 2025 Figures The IRS adjusted several key thresholds for tax year 2025. The standard deduction increased to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married filing jointly, with an additional enhanced deduction of up to $6,000 per qualifying individual age 65 or older ($12,000 for married couples where both spouses qualify). Notably, legislation temporarily increased the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions to up to $40,000 for tax years 2025 through 2029 for certain taxpayers who itemize. This expanded cap is subject to income‑based limitations and may phase down for higher‑income filers, meaning the benefit varies significantly based on overall income and deduction profile. As always, whether itemizing or taking the standard deduction makes sense depends on your specific situation and should be reviewed with your CPA. Estate and gift tax exemptions also saw inflationary adjustments for 2025, which may be relevant if wealth‑transfer planning was part of your year. How we can help? We work alongside your CPA—not in place of them. Our role is to help you stay organized, think through priorities, and make sure your financial decisions are working together toward a bigger goal. In our experience, the families who navigate tax season most efficiently are those who proactively connect the pieces across their professional team, rather than assuming the information flows automatically. If it would be helpful to talk through what’s on your plate before you sit down with your tax advisor, we’re glad to do that. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to provide solutions-not just plans. This information is provided for general educational purposes only and should not be considered tax advice. Please consult your tax professional regarding your specific situation
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By Dale Raimann January 7, 2026
As we closed out 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continued its work to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. In our previous update , we shared how the inflation shock of 2022 reshaped our approach to fixed income and led to a more nimble, systematic positioning of bond assets. That proactive discipline remains a cornerstone of our investment process. As we wrapped up 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continues efforts to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. With the Fed reducing overnight lending rates for the third time, recent IPC discussions have turned to another critical focus area: cash management. Why Cash Strategy Matters Now With interest rates still elevated and market uncertainty persisting, many investors hold larger-than-usual cash positions. While cash provides stability, it also introduces opportunity cost if left idle. One of our IPC objectives is to ensure that excess cash works harder for you, without compromising liquidity for emergencies or near-term cash needs. Refining Our Cash Allocation Policy For our clients with larger cash needs (generally more than 5% or $50k of liquid assets in cash or money market funds), we are shifting to a proactive T-Bill management strategy, or other suitable investments based on goals and circumstances. For our clients holding less than $50k in cash or money market, we have retained money market for liquidity, but we have made a switch to the default money market fund we are using. Risk and Tax Aware Money Market Selection While yields are similar across money markets today, the underlying investments in each money market fund vary quite a bit. For example, Schwab Prime Money Market (ticker SWVXX) offers a slightly higher yield but invests in asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), introducing a modest credit risk. In contrast, Schwab Government Money Market (ticker SNVXX), invests primarily in U.S. Treasuries and government-backed securities, making it virtually risk-free and often state income tax-advantaged. With lower risk and only about 10/100’s of 1% yield difference, our IPC has proactively transitioned clients from SWVXX to SNVXX, to prioritize safety and tax efficiency over a marginal yield difference. Connecting Back to Our Broader Strategy These cash management refinements build on the fixed income strategy we recently outlined. By reducing exposure to inflation-sensitive bonds and implementing a more systematic approach, we are positioning portfolios to be more resilient across potentially weaker or higher-rate environments. Optimizing cash allocations and minimizing credit risk within money markets reinforces the same core principle—protecting downside risk while prudently capturing incremental return opportunities. Looking Ahead As we enter 2026, our investment approach remains focused and disciplined. We continue to prioritize liquidity for cash needs, thoughtful risk management, and systematic investment strategies designed to adapt to evolving market and economic conditions. This proactive framework supports long-term portfolio resilience while remaining aligned with your financial objectives. If you have questions about how these updates may impact your investments, cash management, or overall financial plan, we encourage you to connect with your financial advisor at Buttonwood. Our team is committed to delivering personalized wealth management and asset allocation strategies—regardless of market or economic uncertainty. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to coordinate your asset management as part of our Family CFO services.
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