Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee Update – February 2019

Wall Street has a way of creating ‘investments, tools and rules’ that tend to contribute to sharp moves, both up and down in the investment markets. With the popularity currently given to passive investing we now have more Index and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) than we do individual stocks.

“Many notable investors have raised concerns about the influence of ETFs on the market and whether demand for these funds can inflate stock values into fragile bubbles. Some ETFs rely on portfolio models that are untested in different market conditions and can lead to extreme inflows and outflows from the funds which have a negative impact on market stability.” On top of this many ETFs use leverage in their capital structures which may compound these problems. “Problems with ETFs were significant factors in the flash crashes and market declines in May 2010, August 2015, and February 2018.” (Investopedia)

Add in High Frequency Trading strategies (HFT) and a Tweet by the President or a comment from a Fed Governor, or popular analyst or CEO, can move markets dramatically in minutes.

“High-frequency trading … is a program trading platform that uses powerful computers to transact a large number of orders at fractions of a second. It uses complex algorithms to analyze multiple markets and execute orders based on market conditions. Typically, the traders with the fastest execution speeds are more profitable than traders with slower execution speeds.” (Investopedia)

In our opinion, the decline in Q4 2018 was started by concerns about the Fed raising rates, as well as slowing growth in Europe and China leading to the next US recession. The decline picked up un-needed extreme volatility because of the combination of ETF’s and HFT. When the selling was done, valuations had improved from about 23x earning for the S&P 500 about 16x estimated 2019 earnings.

As 2019 rolled in, the easing of concerns about the next recession subsided and the volatility from ETF’s and HFT went to work the other way. Stocks had their best January gains in more than 30 years: The glass was once again ½ full and positive trends became the focus.

The widely watched January effect says ‘as goes January, so goes the year.’ Our IPC believes that while there may be some historical trends worth paying attention to, each day we live through has its own unique factors and blindly following indicators can get investors in trouble. As such we do the best we can to separate the noise from the news and focus on the multi-year trend consistency of economic cycles.

Brining these concepts into action: As 2018 ended, because of both our primary focus on economic cycle trends as well as our secondary focus on technical trends, we held more cash in portfolios that we had in years. Our large cash and defensive positioning had an impressive impact on performance during the Q4 decline. As 2019 started and markets stabilized, we shifted from the technical ‘hold-cash’ to ‘invest-cash’ position, and much of the cash that had built up in Q4 was invested through a full rebalance.

As the stock market rally continued through January and February, we have seen the pendulum once again swing from undervalued at the end of 2018 to a more overvalued condition. Today, technically, the markets are challenged too. The S&P 500 (as seen in the chart below) is at a point of resistance and will need some good news to break above the triple top resistance from Q4 2018.

Graphic courtesy of Finviz.com 

To specifically address this short-term volatility conundrum, we consider the needs of each of our clients on a case by case basis. At a very high level: If cash is needed in the near term, we sell the recent rally and rebalance those assets over to cash (where we currently seeing about 2% rate of return without risk to principal). If new assets are coming in for investment, we will opportunistically, yet likely more slowly, invest these new assets.

Stepping back to the core focus for the Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee (IPC) and positioning of assets for the various stages of economic cycles: We believe the US and major global economies will continue to grow in the months to come, however growth is slowing and the time is here for more conservative positioning.

As we move into Spring (yea!) we will continue to proactively seek opportunities while remaining focused on our long-term investment objective of achieving a more consistent rate of return over full economic cycles.

If you are interested in learning more about Buttonwood Financial Group and our Investment Policy Committee, email  Info@ButtonwoodFG.com  to schedule a converation!

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February 21, 2026
Tax season has a way of arriving faster than expected. And for 2026, there’s more worth paying attention to than usual—the IRS has updated key figures for tax year 2025, and enforcement around complex returns has intensified. But before you hand everything off to your CPA, a brief pause to review the right details can make the process smoother—and occasionally surfaces something worth acting on. The questions below are starting points for reflection and conversation, not tax guidance. 1. Did anything significant change last year? Life moves fast, and the tax code tries to keep up. A new job, a growing family, a home purchase, a business change, or even a large one-time expense can shift your tax situation in ways that deserve attention. This is also worth thinking about through the lens of your broader advisor team—changes that affect your investments, estate plan, or business interests often have tax consequences that only surface when everyone is looking at the full picture together. If it felt significant, it’s probably worth mentioning. 2. Have you collected all your income documents? Before anything else, make sure the full picture is on the table. W-2s, 1099s, K-1s, Social Security statements, and brokerage summaries should all be accounted for—and reviewed for accuracy, not just collected. A number that looks wrong is worth questioning before your return is filed. One timing note worth flagging: if you hold interests in partnerships, LLCs, private equity funds, or real estate partnerships, K-1s often don’t arrive until mid-March. If your CPA isn’t expecting them, there’s a real risk of filing prematurely without crucial income information 3. Is your paperwork actually ready to hand off? There’s a difference between having your documents and having them organized. A simple folder—digital or physical—sorted by category saves time, reduces back-and-forth with your CPA, and lowers the chance something gets missed in the shuffle. Five minutes of organizing now can prevent a week of delays later. This matters especially if you work with multiple advisors: your wealth manager, CPA, estate attorney, and business attorney each hold pieces of the puzzle. Information that stays siloed between professionals is one of the most common sources of unnecessary complications at filing time. 4. Are your charitable contributions documented? Good intentions don’t substitute for good records. Whether you gave cash, wrote checks, or donated property, make sure you have acknowledgment letters, receipts, or bank records to back it up. For larger contributions, the bar is higher: cash gifts over $250 require written acknowledgment from the charity, non-cash contributions over $500 require Form 8283, and those over $5,000 typically require a qualified appraisal. If you donated appreciated stock or gave through a donor-advised fund, your CPA will also need cost basis information and confirmation of fair market value on the donation date—details that may require coordination with your investment advisor. Timing matters too—gifts need to have been completed by December 31 to count for the prior tax year. 5. Do you have a clear picture of your investment activity? It’s easy to forget about trades made months ago, but we haven't. Sales, exchanges, dividend reinvestments, and distributions can all carry tax consequences. It’s also worth confirming whether any tax-loss harvesting was done on your behalf during the year—those transactions affect your overall gain and loss picture and your CPA should understand them in context. Similarly, if you exercised stock options, received vested restricted stock, or completed a Roth conversion, those activities need to be clearly communicated. Reviewing your year-end statements before you meet with your CPA helps ensure nothing catches anyone off guard. 6. Did your retirement contributions land where you intended? Confirm that what you planned to contribute actually went in—and in the right accounts. If you came up short on IRA contributions, you may still have time to make it right before the filing deadline. If you own a business or have self-employment income, it’s also worth verifying that any retirement plan contributions made through your business are properly coordinated with your personal return. It’s also worth asking whether your current savings rate still fits your retirement timeline. 7. Are your benefit and healthcare accounts squared away? HSAs, FSAs, and similar accounts have their own rules and reporting requirements that are easy to overlook. An HSA withdrawal used for a non-qualified expense, for instance, can trigger a penalty. Pull together your account statements and any related documents so your CPA has the full picture. If you own a business, it’s also worth confirming that health insurance premiums paid through your company are being handled correctly on both your business and personal returns—this is an area where coordination between your bookkeeper and CPA matters more than people expect. 8. What do you want to be more intentional about this year? Tax season is one of the few times most people take a genuine look at their finances. Use that momentum. Beyond filing, consider asking your CPA what your estimated tax payments should look like for 2026, whether any positions on this return carry higher audit risk, and what planning opportunities exist based on what they’re seeing in your return. The IRS has meaningfully intensified enforcement around high-income filers in recent years—particularly around partnership interests, digital asset transactions, and international holdings—so this isn’t a moment to treat compliance as a formality. Whether it’s adjusting your withholding, revisiting your giving strategy, or thinking through a major financial decision ahead, the earlier a conversation starts, the more options you typically have. A Note on 2025 Figures The IRS adjusted several key thresholds for tax year 2025. The standard deduction increased to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married filing jointly, with an additional enhanced deduction of up to $6,000 per qualifying individual age 65 or older ($12,000 for married couples where both spouses qualify). Notably, legislation temporarily increased the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions to up to $40,000 for tax years 2025 through 2029 for certain taxpayers who itemize. This expanded cap is subject to income‑based limitations and may phase down for higher‑income filers, meaning the benefit varies significantly based on overall income and deduction profile. As always, whether itemizing or taking the standard deduction makes sense depends on your specific situation and should be reviewed with your CPA. Estate and gift tax exemptions also saw inflationary adjustments for 2025, which may be relevant if wealth‑transfer planning was part of your year. How we can help? We work alongside your CPA—not in place of them. Our role is to help you stay organized, think through priorities, and make sure your financial decisions are working together toward a bigger goal. In our experience, the families who navigate tax season most efficiently are those who proactively connect the pieces across their professional team, rather than assuming the information flows automatically. If it would be helpful to talk through what’s on your plate before you sit down with your tax advisor, we’re glad to do that. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to provide solutions-not just plans. This information is provided for general educational purposes only and should not be considered tax advice. Please consult your tax professional regarding your specific situation
Investmen
By Dale Raimann January 7, 2026
As we closed out 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continued its work to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. In our previous update , we shared how the inflation shock of 2022 reshaped our approach to fixed income and led to a more nimble, systematic positioning of bond assets. That proactive discipline remains a cornerstone of our investment process. As we wrapped up 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continues efforts to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. With the Fed reducing overnight lending rates for the third time, recent IPC discussions have turned to another critical focus area: cash management. Why Cash Strategy Matters Now With interest rates still elevated and market uncertainty persisting, many investors hold larger-than-usual cash positions. While cash provides stability, it also introduces opportunity cost if left idle. One of our IPC objectives is to ensure that excess cash works harder for you, without compromising liquidity for emergencies or near-term cash needs. Refining Our Cash Allocation Policy For our clients with larger cash needs (generally more than 5% or $50k of liquid assets in cash or money market funds), we are shifting to a proactive T-Bill management strategy, or other suitable investments based on goals and circumstances. For our clients holding less than $50k in cash or money market, we have retained money market for liquidity, but we have made a switch to the default money market fund we are using. Risk and Tax Aware Money Market Selection While yields are similar across money markets today, the underlying investments in each money market fund vary quite a bit. For example, Schwab Prime Money Market (ticker SWVXX) offers a slightly higher yield but invests in asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), introducing a modest credit risk. In contrast, Schwab Government Money Market (ticker SNVXX), invests primarily in U.S. Treasuries and government-backed securities, making it virtually risk-free and often state income tax-advantaged. With lower risk and only about 10/100’s of 1% yield difference, our IPC has proactively transitioned clients from SWVXX to SNVXX, to prioritize safety and tax efficiency over a marginal yield difference. Connecting Back to Our Broader Strategy These cash management refinements build on the fixed income strategy we recently outlined. By reducing exposure to inflation-sensitive bonds and implementing a more systematic approach, we are positioning portfolios to be more resilient across potentially weaker or higher-rate environments. Optimizing cash allocations and minimizing credit risk within money markets reinforces the same core principle—protecting downside risk while prudently capturing incremental return opportunities. Looking Ahead As we enter 2026, our investment approach remains focused and disciplined. We continue to prioritize liquidity for cash needs, thoughtful risk management, and systematic investment strategies designed to adapt to evolving market and economic conditions. This proactive framework supports long-term portfolio resilience while remaining aligned with your financial objectives. If you have questions about how these updates may impact your investments, cash management, or overall financial plan, we encourage you to connect with your financial advisor at Buttonwood. Our team is committed to delivering personalized wealth management and asset allocation strategies—regardless of market or economic uncertainty. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to coordinate your asset management as part of our Family CFO services.
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