Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee Update – February 2019

Wall Street has a way of creating ‘investments, tools and rules’ that tend to contribute to sharp moves, both up and down in the investment markets. With the popularity currently given to passive investing we now have more Index and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) than we do individual stocks.

“Many notable investors have raised concerns about the influence of ETFs on the market and whether demand for these funds can inflate stock values into fragile bubbles. Some ETFs rely on portfolio models that are untested in different market conditions and can lead to extreme inflows and outflows from the funds which have a negative impact on market stability.” On top of this many ETFs use leverage in their capital structures which may compound these problems. “Problems with ETFs were significant factors in the flash crashes and market declines in May 2010, August 2015, and February 2018.” (Investopedia)

Add in High Frequency Trading strategies (HFT) and a Tweet by the President or a comment from a Fed Governor, or popular analyst or CEO, can move markets dramatically in minutes.

“High-frequency trading … is a program trading platform that uses powerful computers to transact a large number of orders at fractions of a second. It uses complex algorithms to analyze multiple markets and execute orders based on market conditions. Typically, the traders with the fastest execution speeds are more profitable than traders with slower execution speeds.” (Investopedia)

In our opinion, the decline in Q4 2018 was started by concerns about the Fed raising rates, as well as slowing growth in Europe and China leading to the next US recession. The decline picked up un-needed extreme volatility because of the combination of ETF’s and HFT. When the selling was done, valuations had improved from about 23x earning for the S&P 500 about 16x estimated 2019 earnings.

As 2019 rolled in, the easing of concerns about the next recession subsided and the volatility from ETF’s and HFT went to work the other way. Stocks had their best January gains in more than 30 years: The glass was once again ½ full and positive trends became the focus.

The widely watched January effect says ‘as goes January, so goes the year.’ Our IPC believes that while there may be some historical trends worth paying attention to, each day we live through has its own unique factors and blindly following indicators can get investors in trouble. As such we do the best we can to separate the noise from the news and focus on the multi-year trend consistency of economic cycles.

Brining these concepts into action: As 2018 ended, because of both our primary focus on economic cycle trends as well as our secondary focus on technical trends, we held more cash in portfolios that we had in years. Our large cash and defensive positioning had an impressive impact on performance during the Q4 decline. As 2019 started and markets stabilized, we shifted from the technical ‘hold-cash’ to ‘invest-cash’ position, and much of the cash that had built up in Q4 was invested through a full rebalance.

As the stock market rally continued through January and February, we have seen the pendulum once again swing from undervalued at the end of 2018 to a more overvalued condition. Today, technically, the markets are challenged too. The S&P 500 (as seen in the chart below) is at a point of resistance and will need some good news to break above the triple top resistance from Q4 2018.

Graphic courtesy of Finviz.com 

To specifically address this short-term volatility conundrum, we consider the needs of each of our clients on a case by case basis. At a very high level: If cash is needed in the near term, we sell the recent rally and rebalance those assets over to cash (where we currently seeing about 2% rate of return without risk to principal). If new assets are coming in for investment, we will opportunistically, yet likely more slowly, invest these new assets.

Stepping back to the core focus for the Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee (IPC) and positioning of assets for the various stages of economic cycles: We believe the US and major global economies will continue to grow in the months to come, however growth is slowing and the time is here for more conservative positioning.

As we move into Spring (yea!) we will continue to proactively seek opportunities while remaining focused on our long-term investment objective of achieving a more consistent rate of return over full economic cycles.

If you are interested in learning more about Buttonwood Financial Group and our Investment Policy Committee, email  Info@ButtonwoodFG.com  to schedule a converation!

Recent Buttonwood Articles


Investmen
By Dale Raimann January 7, 2026
As we closed out 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continued its work to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. In our previous update , we shared how the inflation shock of 2022 reshaped our approach to fixed income and led to a more nimble, systematic positioning of bond assets. That proactive discipline remains a cornerstone of our investment process. As we wrapped up 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continues efforts to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. With the Fed reducing overnight lending rates for the third time, recent IPC discussions have turned to another critical focus area: cash management. Why Cash Strategy Matters Now With interest rates still elevated and market uncertainty persisting, many investors hold larger-than-usual cash positions. While cash provides stability, it also introduces opportunity cost if left idle. One of our IPC objectives is to ensure that excess cash works harder for you, without compromising liquidity for emergencies or near-term cash needs. Refining Our Cash Allocation Policy For our clients with larger cash needs (generally more than 5% or $50k of liquid assets in cash or money market funds), we are shifting to a proactive T-Bill management strategy, or other suitable investments based on goals and circumstances. For our clients holding less than $50k in cash or money market, we have retained money market for liquidity, but we have made a switch to the default money market fund we are using. Risk and Tax Aware Money Market Selection While yields are similar across money markets today, the underlying investments in each money market fund vary quite a bit. For example, Schwab Prime Money Market (ticker SWVXX) offers a slightly higher yield but invests in asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), introducing a modest credit risk. In contrast, Schwab Government Money Market (ticker SNVXX), invests primarily in U.S. Treasuries and government-backed securities, making it virtually risk-free and often state income tax-advantaged. With lower risk and only about 10/100’s of 1% yield difference, our IPC has proactively transitioned clients from SWVXX to SNVXX, to prioritize safety and tax efficiency over a marginal yield difference. Connecting Back to Our Broader Strategy These cash management refinements build on the fixed income strategy we recently outlined. By reducing exposure to inflation-sensitive bonds and implementing a more systematic approach, we are positioning portfolios to be more resilient across potentially weaker or higher-rate environments. Optimizing cash allocations and minimizing credit risk within money markets reinforces the same core principle—protecting downside risk while prudently capturing incremental return opportunities. Looking Ahead As we enter 2026, our investment approach remains focused and disciplined. We continue to prioritize liquidity for cash needs, thoughtful risk management, and systematic investment strategies designed to adapt to evolving market and economic conditions. This proactive framework supports long-term portfolio resilience while remaining aligned with your financial objectives. If you have questions about how these updates may impact your investments, cash management, or overall financial plan, we encourage you to connect with your financial advisor at Buttonwood. Our team is committed to delivering personalized wealth management and asset allocation strategies—regardless of market or economic uncertainty. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to coordinate your asset management as part of our Family CFO services.
How to Talk About Money with Family Over the Holidays
December 23, 2025
How to Talk About Money with Family Over the Holidays. Whether your family is just beginning to plan or has been navigating financial decisions across generations
December 12, 2025
As year-end approaches, many clients focus on charitable giving—supporting causes they care about while optimizing their tax strategy. This year carries added urgency: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will significantly change charitable giving rules in 2026.
Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee Update
By Jon McGraw November 24, 2025
Maintain diversification as one of our risk management tools, focusing on our high-conviction ideas that tie with where we feel we are in the economic cycle.
Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee Update
By Kyle Hogan September 26, 2025
Our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) remains focused on balancing opportunity with discipline as markets continue to react to shifting economic and geopolitical dynamics. Following a volatile start to the year, recent developments have created a more constructive environment for risk assets, though caution remains war
Inside the Capitol Building, where the
By Jon McGraw July 21, 2025
On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law. Learn what that means for business owners.

Are you ready to explore the benefits of your very own Family CFO?

LET'S TALK

Buttonwood Services


About Buttonwood Financial Group