Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee Update – August 2019

The month of August has been quite a ride for the stock market. Stepping back and taking a bit longer view: The S&P 500 reached a high of 2,872 on January 26, 2018, at the close on Friday August 16, the S&P 500 stood at 2,891 – less than 3/4 of 1% change.

As we regularly reiterate, the objective of our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) is to produce a more consistent rate of return over full economic cycles – both in good times of economic expansion as well as bad times (recession). With a more consistent rate of return we have a much higher probability of planning for successful financial lives!

We are often asked about the process our IPC follows when targeting a more consistent return. While there are too many complexities to review here, in summary our IPC focuses on the longer-term trends of the economic cycles and combines these views with shorter-term technical market trends.

Economic Cycles

Historically, the economies of the world grow, causing stock markets to go up, about 3/4 of the time. Recessions account for the other 1/4 of the time. The time between recessions is an Economic Cycle. As JP Morgan illustrates on page 16 & 17 of the Guide to the Markets , economic expansions and contractions are a normal part of our world. For a visual look of their interpretation of where world economies are today, see page 7 of Fidelity’s Quarterly Update.

Recently there has been quite a bit of discussion about the “inverted yield curve” (meaning short term interest rates are higher than long term interest rates). The reason this has become such a hot topic is that the yield curve has a good track record of forecasting growth (during ‘normal’ or ‘steep’ curves), and the recessions (‘inverted’ curve). Stockcharts.com provides a webpage showing how the bond market (interest rates on government bonds) and the stock market (S&P 500) interact with one another. Simply click on the vertical red line on the stock side… as you move it back in time you can see the structure of the yield curve. The last inversion was in 2007 and the one before was in 2000.

Thinking about what sectors we want to move money into, or out of; our IPC makes specific changes based on our perceived changes over both U.S. and foreign economic cycles. When business cycle and/or economic risks are higher, we proactively take steps to reduce investment risk found in stock and bond markets worldwide. Conversely, when economic risks are lower, we will take steps to increase investment risk. Our baseline allocation is diversified and designed to capture the various sectors of markets around the world.

Once sector targets are defined by the economic cycle, we then determine specific investments that best align with these targets. MFS provides an illustration of how various market sectors rotate from year to year as we move through economic cycles. Once individual investments are made, we implement a rigorous process to track and monitor each one.

Technical Trends

Beyond our tactical economic cycle allocation, we also overlay shorter term technical market indicators to determine ‘cash’ strategy (invest cash OR hold cash).  Buttonwood positioning and strategy is communicated to clients via email and posted on our website.

Investment strategy, as defined by our IPC, is then combined with specific cash needs of each individual or family we work with in our strategy update meetings. If cash is needed soon, or investment assets are providing income, we increase cash, CD’s and short-term bonds as we move into the later stages of the economic cycle. This cash is designed to limit the impact stock market volatility can have.

With all the uncertainty in the world today, know that our IPC has a consistent proactive process at work ultimately designed for you to enjoy a much better night’s sleep. Looking forward, we believe the US and major global economies will continue to grow in the months ahead, however global growth is slowing. Trade wars and the upcoming election in November 2020 are only adding to the uncertainty, which leads to increased volatility. As such we will continue to proactively seek opportunities while remaining focused on downside protection.

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By Dale Raimann January 7, 2026
As we closed out 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continued its work to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. In our previous update , we shared how the inflation shock of 2022 reshaped our approach to fixed income and led to a more nimble, systematic positioning of bond assets. That proactive discipline remains a cornerstone of our investment process. As we wrapped up 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continues efforts to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. With the Fed reducing overnight lending rates for the third time, recent IPC discussions have turned to another critical focus area: cash management. Why Cash Strategy Matters Now With interest rates still elevated and market uncertainty persisting, many investors hold larger-than-usual cash positions. While cash provides stability, it also introduces opportunity cost if left idle. One of our IPC objectives is to ensure that excess cash works harder for you, without compromising liquidity for emergencies or near-term cash needs. Refining Our Cash Allocation Policy For our clients with larger cash needs (generally more than 5% or $50k of liquid assets in cash or money market funds), we are shifting to a proactive T-Bill management strategy, or other suitable investments based on goals and circumstances. For our clients holding less than $50k in cash or money market, we have retained money market for liquidity, but we have made a switch to the default money market fund we are using. Risk and Tax Aware Money Market Selection While yields are similar across money markets today, the underlying investments in each money market fund vary quite a bit. For example, Schwab Prime Money Market (ticker SWVXX) offers a slightly higher yield but invests in asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), introducing a modest credit risk. In contrast, Schwab Government Money Market (ticker SNVXX), invests primarily in U.S. Treasuries and government-backed securities, making it virtually risk-free and often state income tax-advantaged. With lower risk and only about 10/100’s of 1% yield difference, our IPC has proactively transitioned clients from SWVXX to SNVXX, to prioritize safety and tax efficiency over a marginal yield difference. Connecting Back to Our Broader Strategy These cash management refinements build on the fixed income strategy we recently outlined. By reducing exposure to inflation-sensitive bonds and implementing a more systematic approach, we are positioning portfolios to be more resilient across potentially weaker or higher-rate environments. Optimizing cash allocations and minimizing credit risk within money markets reinforces the same core principle—protecting downside risk while prudently capturing incremental return opportunities. Looking Ahead As we enter 2026, our investment approach remains focused and disciplined. We continue to prioritize liquidity for cash needs, thoughtful risk management, and systematic investment strategies designed to adapt to evolving market and economic conditions. This proactive framework supports long-term portfolio resilience while remaining aligned with your financial objectives. If you have questions about how these updates may impact your investments, cash management, or overall financial plan, we encourage you to connect with your financial advisor at Buttonwood. Our team is committed to delivering personalized wealth management and asset allocation strategies—regardless of market or economic uncertainty. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to coordinate your asset management as part of our Family CFO services.
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