Investment Policy Committee Updates - March Rebalance
Geopolitics and economic impacts evolve; and thus, we evolve our investment allocations. Our March rebalance consisted of a series of targeted adjustments designed to keep portfolios aligned with our long-term objectives of producing a more consistent rate of return, while adapting to a changing investment environment.
The takeaway is straightforward: we remain firmly invested in growth, but we’re being more intentional about how we are taking risk. The change during this rebalance is a refinement of positioning, not a retreat from our conviction.
Staying Invested, With Better Balance
We continue to maintain a modest equity overweight, as we believe stocks will still outperform bonds. Our logic reflects an economic macro backdrop that remains supportive. Economic growth has been resilient; earnings have held up, and inflation pressures continue to trend in the right direction. These conditions favor stocks and growth rather than stepping aside.
At the same time, the market has begun to reward selectivity over concentration. In response, we trimmed positions that had grown disproportionately large, took profits on recent winners, and reduced some of our most concentrated factor tilts. The goal is not to reduce upside participation, but to pursue it with better diversification and durability.
Tempering Regional Bets
We made modest regional adjustments to improve balance without changing our core views:
- U.S. equities: We remain constructive on U.S. earnings power, but trimmed our overweight to the US, after a strong run to reduce concentration risk.
- Emerging markets: After meaningful gains, particularly tied to AI and semiconductor supply chain, we again took some profits while maintaining meaningful exposure.
- International developed markets: We reduced, but did not eliminate, our underweight, acknowledging that in a broadening market, extreme regional bets can become less efficient.
The result is a more balanced global equity mix, designed to be resilient across a wider range of outcomes.
Broadening Our AI Exposure
The AI trade has been and continues to remain one of the most powerful long-term themes shaping the global economy. However, the opportunity is not evenly distributed. While many companies are experimenting with AI, only a small subset are successfully deploying it at scale in ways that meaningfully improve productivity and competitiveness.
We believe we have strengthened our AI positioning through active investment strategies that seek to identify not only core technology builders, but also early adopters across industries. We have targeted companies that are using AI to create durable advantages rather than simply following the trend: Lessons learned during the .com era. As risks increase and the market becomes more selective, we believe this selective approach matters more than ever.
Adding to Defense, with a Global Lens
We also added to our exposure to defense stocks, reflecting what we believe is a multiyear, policy driven investment cycle tied to modernization and security priorities. Importantly, we shifted from a U.S. centric approach toward a more diversified global strategy, aiming to capture where defense spending is expanding most clearly.
Defense plays a dual role in investment portfolios today: Not only is it a structural growth opportunity; we are also viewing it as a diversifying equity exposure with drivers distinct from traditional economic cycles. An economic recession doesn’t necessarily impact the need for a nation to defend itself.
Strengthening Bonds as a Stabilizer
Within fixed income, our focus during this rebalance was to improve resilience. Credit spreads are historically tight, meaning investors are being paid very little for taking on credit risk. In these conditions, credit (bonds) can behave more like equity (stocks) during market stress.
As such, we reduced credit heavy exposures and added higher quality, longer duration government bonds. The intent is to make our bond allocation a more reliable shock absorber during periods of volatility. At the same time, we would like to preserve the flexibility to add risk later if credit sells off and valuations improve.
The Bottom Line
Our March 2026 rebalance kept portfolios in our ‘barbell’ structure. Assets are both positioned for growth, which has served us very well, while we continue to increase our defensive positioning. We believe defense has been increased by improving diversification, reducing concentration, and strengthening downside protection.
In short, following our March rebalance, assets are positioned to take advantage of opportunities to participate in an overall economically constructive outlook, but we believe are now better positioned to weather uncertainty with greater resilience.
If you have questions about how these changes apply specifically to your cash flows or financial objectives, we welcome the conversation. Thank you for your continued trust and partnership.
Important Disclosure
This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and reflects general market views as of the date published. It is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Market conditions and investment strategies are subject to change. Please consult with your Buttonwood Financial Group advisor regarding your individual circumstances before making any investment decisions.
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